By now, it become confirmed that the BNP and 15 other registered parties agitating for a non-partisan polls time govt had boycotted the parliamentary election slated for 7 January.
Finally, the time for becoming a member of the electoral bustle had ended on the closing day of November.
Bangladesh become now firmly on the toddle to derive every other one-sided “festival of democracy” at a time when it become suffering from an economic and diplomatic disaster, the likes of which the nation had below no circumstances seen before.
But, the topmost priority of feeble High Minister Sheikh Hasina become to protect the scheduled election no topic its quality, global outcry in opposition to democratic backsliding, and that you would possibly maybe maybe maybe maybe take into account consequences of her aggressive diplomacy, that would derive pushed Bangladesh extra exact into a narrow geopolitical nook.
Hasina organized her political chess in such a sort that the election appeared “participatory” on the bottom, because the need of participating parties and candidates become increased than in the 2014 election, which become held amid a boycott by the BNP-led opposition alliance.
In the 2014 election, only 12 out of 39 registered parties participated, fielding fewer than 1,000 candidates, ensuing in uncontested elections in 153 out of 300 parliamentary seats. This unprecedented need of uncontested seats, extra than the bulk required to manufacture a govt, caused in sort criticism.
The 7 January election, though jam to be held amid a boycott by the BNP and other opposition parties, perceived to be a numbers game. The need of participants looked “impressive,” with 30 out of 44 registered parties filing 2,741 nominations. A story need of honest candidates, 747, mostly aligned with the ruling Awami League, indicated no shortage of candidates.
To ensure the polls appeared “participatory,” Hasina made a calculated cross. On 26 November, throughout a assembly at the side of her occasion’s parliamentary nomination seekers, she directed other folks that can maybe maybe no longer uncover occasion tickets to hotfoot as honest candidates. This become a honest exact shift from the occasion’s previous stance, where it had taken punitive measures in opposition to dissidents who ran in opposition to occasion-nominated candidates. Per the AL structure, no member become allowed to contest elections in opposition to the occasion’s legit nominee.
This time, on the other hand, Hasina omitted her occasion’s charter, allowing AL leaders to hotfoot as independents. But the unprecedented need of honest candidates caused field in the center of the ruling occasion, as loads of these candidates had solid local followings and would possibly maybe maybe well moreover doubtlessly defeat legit AL nominees. Interior conflicts at the grassroots diploma between supporters of occasion nominees and honest candidates also threatened to escalate. To protect watch over this, the occasion determined to management the honest candidates. Some would be asked to withdraw from the bustle to ensure the occasion’s candidates received simply, with punitive actions threatened in opposition to other folks that refused. The election administration would possibly maybe maybe well moreover be passe to disqualify certain honest candidates.
The feeble high minister’s govt also centered on guaranteeing a aloof polling day with a excessive voter turnout. In accordance with this conception, a full need of regulation enforcement officers were deployed all the most effective diagram throughout the nation, asserting tight regulate over the jam. Many opposition leaders and activists were detained in the months main as a lot as the election, with some convicted in aged political cases. By asserting this tight regulate, Hasina’s govt aimed to protect what it known as a “free and brilliant election,” as there become on the subject of no possibility of dropping the 7 January polls.
By preserving such an election, Hasina supposed to repeat to the US and its Western allies, who had expressed concerns about human rights and the election atmosphere, that her govt would possibly maybe maybe well moreover indeed behavior a “free and brilliant election.”
On 28 November, Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader reiterated this purpose, bringing up that preserving “a free, brilliant, and credible election” become their honest, and by arranging a aloof election, they sought to indicate their dedication.
But the reality on the bottom reflected no signs of a free and brilliant election. The election become jam to be one-sided because the almighty Awami League (AL) confronted no solid challengers in round 270 of the 300 seats. In the final 30 seats, candidates from the Jatiya Social gathering, identified because the ‘govt-friendly’ main opposition occasion in parliament since 2014, were prospective challengers to the AL candidates, but the occasion become now no longer solid enough to prevent Sheikh Hasina from changing into high minister for a fourth consecutive term.
Some high leaders of smaller parties were reportedly given assurances by the ruling occasion’s excessive express that they’d be allowed to glean now no longer lower than once in their lifetimes. In the absence of the BNP, the key challenger to the ruling AL, leaders of smaller parties perceived to be “fundamental” gamers in the bustle. Hasina had warned her occasion’s nomination aspirants that this time she would now no longer enable any individual to be elected uncontested, as had came about in the 2014 election.
This time, the ruling AL also nominated candidates for the seats of high leaders of its 14-occasion alliance partners and asked them to field candidates individually. Responding to a inquire of on seat-sharing amongst allies, Obaidul Quader stated on 28 November, “December 17 is the time limit for nomination withdrawal. We can explore and own adjustments in the length in-between. The entire lot shall be finalized by 17 December.”
The ruling AL deliberate to leave some seats for senior leaders of the Jatiya Social gathering and its alliance partners, both by asking AL candidates to withdraw or by disqualifying them through election administration. One thing become certain: every little thing would be saved below regulate, and the election would be neatly-managed.
Bangladesh in an unprecedented disaster
Sooner than the 7 January parliamentary election, Bangladesh become suffering from an unprecedented three-pronged disaster—political, economic, and diplomatic. The cumulative pause of these crises had pushed Bangladesh to a tipping point.
The nation’s economic system, already below rigidity as a result of twin shocks of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, become now bearing the brunt of the political disaster over the 7 January nationwide election. On the very least four days each and per week in November saw both blockades or hartals enforced by opposition parties calling for feeble High Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation to enable elections to be held below a non-partisan caretaker govt. Despite regulation enforcement companies and ruling occasion supporters’ efforts to certain opposition from the streets, the shortcoming of normalcy crippled companies and other folks’s livelihoods.
Inflation become at a decade-excessive and persevered to upward push, squeezing the residing requirements of the bulk in Bangladesh. Diverse monetary and financial measures taken by the governmentand the central bank failed to alleviate the jam. Bangladesh would possibly maybe maybe well moreover now no longer rob profit of dropping global commodity costs due to a international forex disaster. Per the central bank, the forex reserve had plummeted to lower than $20 billion by November, with the usable reserve being lower than $16 billion—enough to duvet lower than three months of imports.
Rampant allegations of graft and anomalies in the banking sector, along with unheard of price escalations in loads of govt mega-initiatives, worsened the nation’s economic health. The dearth of accountability and transparency in public expenditure had saved Bangladesh repeatedly at the backside of the corruption thought index by Transparency Worldwide for years.
Human rights and labor rights had been main concerns for over a decade. Despite this, the governmentremained certain to protect the 7 January election at any price to grasp to energy. Constructing partners persevered to explain concerns over the rights jam and the upcoming election, which become jam to be one-sided once again.
The usa had already imposed the key round of visa restrictions on folk to blame for undermining the democratic election process and warned of original punitive measures, such as alternate sanctions for labor rights violations and extra visa restrictions. A file launched by the European Union on 21 November dealt every other blow to exporters. The file reiterated concerns over human rights and entreated Bangladeshi authorities to reinforce in areas such as freedom of expression, assembly, and civil society plot. It known as for investigations into alleged torture, sick-therapy, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances.
The EU’s renewed address rights got right here at a time when the Bangladesh Embassy in Washington DC alerted the commerce ministry to the aptitude consequences of the most original US labor rights policy. The embassy’s letter, dated 20 November, warned that Bangladesh veritably is a purpose of the honest now no longer too long ago launched US memorandum on labor rights and that the wretchedness would possibly maybe maybe well moreover aloof be “taken into cognizance with priority.”
The entire lot is enough. No worries?
The US warning had made exporters timid, because the USA become one of the key export destinations for Bangladesh’s RMG merchandise. Reasonably than taking the warning significantly to reinforce the labor rights jam, the governmentchose to ignore it, prioritizing the upcoming election. High Minister Sheikh Hasina and International Minister AK Abdul Momen publicly denounced the warning, claiming that the governmentbecome now no longer inquisitive about any sanctions.
After the US unveiled its visa policy at the terminate of Could maybe, Hasina, on 3 June, stated that Bangladeshis would possibly maybe maybe well moreover aloof now no longer awe about sanctions and visa curbs. Again, on 3 October, she reassured the public, announcing there become no derive to awe about sanctions. Her occasion’s Normal Secretary, Obaidul Quader, said on 26 September that no visa policy or sanctions would possibly maybe maybe well moreover pause Hasina from preserving the election in accordance with the most original constitutional provisions.
Even after the US labor policy become rolled out in mid-November, International Minister AK Abdul Momen, on 19 November, said there would be no wretchedness if the US imposed sanctions on Bangladesh. Nonetheless, the Bangladesh mission in Washington, in a letter to the commerce ministry on 20 November, raised concerns. The letter indicated that the most original US policy on labor rights become extreme enough to warrant Bangladesh’s consideration and would possibly maybe maybe well moreover be taken significantly by full of life stakeholders.
The timing of the US labor policy coincided with violent protests in Bangladesh’s ready-made garment (RMG) sector, a fundamental allotment of the nation’s export economic system, with exports reaching over $46.99 billion in FY23, centering on a hike in workers’ minimal wages. The depressed labor rights jam also risked jeopardizing Bangladesh’s exports to the EU, the largest destination for RMG exports. Bangladesh, the key beneficiary of the EU’s “The entire lot But Hands” alternate program, confronted rising scrutiny from the EU parliament, which wondered whether Bangladesh would possibly maybe maybe well moreover aloof proceed to expertise these advantages given its depressed labor rights instances.
On 29 November, local media broke the news of the Washington embassy’s letter. Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi confidently asserted that the US and its European allies’ efforts to hinder Bangladesh’s garment exports would in the kill indicate futile. “Politics and alternate are clear spheres. They [the US and European countries] will now no longer pause something that jeopardizes Bangladesh’s garment alternate,” he said whereas filing his nomination for the upcoming parliamentary election.
The minister also entreated attire entrepreneurs now to no longer awe about the US memorandum on labor rights announced on 16 November. Upon his return from the USA, US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas had a assembly with International Secretary Masud Bin Momen on 30 November at Enlighten Guesthouse Padma to discuss ongoing dispositions in bilateral family. The assembly, which started at 11 a.m. and lasted for half-hour, also integrated Bangladesh’s Ambassador to the US, Muhammad Imran. After the assembly, neither Haas nor International Secretary Momen spoke to reporters.
Later that day, International Minister AK Abdul Momen said there become nothing to awe about concerning the US “Presidential Memorandum on Advancing Worker Empowerment, Rights, and High Labor Requirements Globally,” published earlier in the month. He emphasised that Bangladeshi merchandise were competitive in quality, price, and provide times, which secured their uncover entry to to the US market. He expressed confidence in Bangladesh’s non-public sector, describing its exporters as natty and dynamic.
The US Presidential Memorandum, rolled out on 16 November, declared that the US would protect responsible other folks that threatened, intimidated, or attacked union leaders, labor rights defenders, and labor organizations, the command of sanctions, alternate penalties, and visa restrictions. The all-fundamental inquire of remained: would possibly maybe maybe well moreover labor rights be ensured without also guaranteeing democratic and human rights in the nation?
In such a jam, a honest exact and credible election perceived to be the becoming clear up for Bangladesh. As Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal rightly stated on 27 November, “If we must assign our democracy, supply protection to our economic system and future, the election would possibly maybe maybe maybe derive to be brilliant, acceptable, and credible.” His remarks were broadly accepted as a necessity for Bangladesh. He added, “Due to this we desire a free, brilliant, and credible election.”
High Minister Sheikh Hasina and her cabinet colleagues time and again assured the public that the election would be free and brilliant. The Chief Election Commissioner and other officials continuously reassured the nation that the Election Commission become working diligently to protect free and brilliant elections. Nonetheless, the rampant violation of the electoral code of behavior on the closing day of filing nomination papers indicated that the EC had restricted regulate, although it had issued repeat-purpose notices to a handful of candidates.
The Election Commission, led by CEC Kazi Habibul Awal, and the election-time govt, headed by High Minister Sheikh Hasina, confronted increased scrutiny and doubt. International Minister AK Abdul Momen said on 27 November that both Bangladesh and the US believed in democracy and wished free and brilliant elections in Bangladesh. He neatly-known that the US didn’t derive unrealistic requires, only calling for brilliant elections, a purpose Bangladesh also shared.
Heading in direction of every other model election?
Because the nation full of life for every other election, tensions were excessive. The day CEC Kazi Habibul Awal announced the election schedule, a war-esteem atmosphere prevailed in the capital and other cities. A heavy deployment of regulation enforcement become stationed end to the Election Commission building to prevent unrest. Law enforcement companies were also positioned on alert nationwide because the BNP and other opposition parties enforced blockades all the most effective diagram throughout the nation.
The govt. had taken a hardline stance in opposition to the BNP for the reason that occasion’s 28 October deliberate rally in the capital become thwarted by regulation enforcement. Hundreds of BNP leaders and activists, including high leaders Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, and Mirza Abbas, were arrested and imprisoned. In November alone, several hundred BNP leaders and activists were sentenced by the “govt-managed lower judiciary” on loads of costs. Varied senior leaders, warding off arrest, went into hiding. Despite persevering with to jabber blockades and hartals, the occasion struggled to explain protesters to the streets, as they were rapidly dispersed by authorities.
The case of BNP Vice Chairman Shahjahan Omar grew to change into a glaring instance of how the ruling occasion allegedly tried to divide the BNP. After securing bail in an arson case, Shahjahan Omar resigned from the occasion and submitted his nomination to hotfoot in the upcoming nationwide elections as an Awami League candidate. A dozen other BNP leaders, allegedly below rigidity, departed from the occasion to affix smaller groups or hotfoot as independents.
Because the BNP persevered its agitation, senior govt leaders, including PM Hasina, were accused of fueling violence. On 3 November, Hasina encouraged her occasion people to retaliate in opposition to arsonists by throwing them “into the same fire,” bringing up, “The hand that sets fire to something will would possibly maybe maybe maybe derive to be burnt.” Though Awami League Normal Secretary Obaidul Quader condemned threats in opposition to US Ambassador Haas, tensions remained excessive.
Despite the escalating jam, CEC Kazi Habibul Awal maintained, in a 16 November address, that a congenial atmosphere without cost and brilliant elections prevailed in the nation. His colleague, Election Commissioner Brig Gen (retd) Md Ahsan Habib Khan, reiterated on 27 November that the EC become sincerely looking to protect a participatory, brilliant, and credible election. Nonetheless, the bottom reality suggested the EC had restricted regulate.
On the closing day of filing nomination papers, in sort violations of the electoral code were observed, especially amongst ruling occasion candidates, including ministers and MPs. As an instance, the regulation minister become seen main a procession in his constituency, a honest exact violation of the code. While repeat-purpose notices were issued to some ministers and MPs, no circulation become taken in opposition to others who breached the code.
The EC also remained silent as political parties, including the ruling Awami League, bought nomination papers without inspiring their grassroots units, a honest exact breach of the Illustration of the Americans’s Stammer (RPO). Per the RPO, grassroots units would possibly maybe maybe well moreover aloof ship a panel of prospective candidates to the central parliamentary body for consideration. Nonetheless, PM Hasina, who led the AL’s central parliamentary board, missed this provision. On 26 November, she passe her legit put, Gono Bhaban, as a venue to fulfill with occasion candidates, extra violating the code, which bans the command of govt facilities for partisan functions.
The jam introduced on Original York-essentially based Human Rights Glimpse to pause that “A free election is awfully now no longer in point of fact when the governmentstifles free expression and systematically incapacitates the opposition, critics, and activists through arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearance, harassment, and intimidation.” On 26 November, HRW senior Asia researcher Julia Bleckner stated, “Reasonably than stoking violence and jailing her critics, High Minister Sheikh Hasina would possibly maybe maybe well moreover aloof demand an instantaneous terminate to arbitrary political arrests and own certain that enforced disappearances, torture, and killings by security forces would possibly maybe maybe well moreover now no longer be tolerated.” The HRW frequently identified as on international governments to instruct that Bangladesh uphold its world obligations to human rights.
Earlier, on 13 November, the Situation of enterprise of the United Worldwide locations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) expressed extreme concerns about the excessive command of force, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances in Bangladesh. The OHCHR immediate that Bangladesh put up an inventory of all diagnosed places of detention and be sure that no one become held in secret or incommunicado detention, as stated in its Fashionable Periodic Overview published on 13 November.
Bangladesh: The battleground of superpowers
Critics said Bangladesh had gradually been sliding in direction of autocracy since Hasina got right here to energy in 2009 in an election held below a caretaker govt backed by the navy. To grasp to energy, she managed the elections in 2014 and 2018 and performed easy wins. Worldwide observers neatly-known that both elections were significantly incorrect. The 2014 election become boycotted by all opposition parties after the ruling occasion eradicated the caretaker govt provision from the structure in 2011. Though opposition parties participated in the 2018 election, media reports published that in some places, votes were solid the evening before, and loads of voters were barred from voting.
Both the controversial elections were held below her govt after scrapping the nonpartisan election-time govt in 2011. Because the ruling Bangladesh Awami League established regulate over the administration, regulation enforcement companies enacted a series of authorized pointers to stifle freedom of expression since 2014, most particularly the Digital Security Act of 2018, which become later changed by the Cyber Security Act. The judiciary failed to behave, and the nation incrementally slid in direction of changing into an elected autocracy, per political analysts. The impunity enjoyed by AL activists and the abet of the alternate community exacerbated the jam.
The US and its allies continuously known as without cost and brilliant elections in Bangladesh and insisted that the authorities protect their world obligations to uphold human rights. Nonetheless, China and Russia extended an olive branch to Hasina at a time when her govt become below full rigidity from the USA, EU, UN, and world rights organizations to protect a free and brilliant election.
Both China and Russia made statements denouncing the US for what they known as “interference” in Bangladesh’s interior affairs. Apart from they entreated the USA, a rival of both nations in the bustle to dominate the enviornment voice, to leave Bangladesh to resolve the subsequent election.
India’s role become also great. It remained silent for a extremely long time, but on 10 November, Indian International Secretary Vinay Kwatra informed a press convention in Original Delhi that India “respects the democratic process in Bangladesh.” “When it involves dispositions in Bangladesh, elections in Bangladesh, it is their domestic topic. It’s miles for the other folks of Bangladesh to resolve their future,” Kwatra said, describing India “as a end honest exact friend and accomplice” of Bangladesh.
Such remarks from India weren’t in accordance with what it had carried out before the 2014 parliamentary election. For the time being, then-Indian International Secretary Sujata Singh flew into Dhaka and held talks with parties, allegedly persuading then-Jatiya Social gathering chief HM Ershad now to no longer quit the January 5 election in 2014.
India’s international secretary’s remarks emboldened the ruling AL camp, as it felt India become also supporting the Hasina govt in times of disaster. Interior hours of these feedback, feeble Bangladesh International Secretary Md. Touhid Hossain informed Desh TV News that India’s stance would explain aid to the Hasina-led AL govt. “We know the Hasina govt needs to uncover carried out with an election, which can maybe well maybe now no longer be free and brilliant. They were maybe in some jam as a consequence of they weren’t certain if India become backing them. It shall be that you would possibly maybe maybe maybe maybe take into account that they already knew of India’s abet. Finally, [the government] would really feel relieved with India’s response,” Hossain said.
The usa, on the other hand, made its stance certain when on 13 November, US Assistant Secretary of Enlighten for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu dispatched letters calling for “dialogue without preconditions” amongst the three main parties — the Awami League, the BNP, and the Jatiya Social gathering. In response, the ruling Awami League stated that enticing in dialogue with opposition parties become now no longer seemingly due to time constraints.
Russia claimed that US Ambassador Peter Haas become interfering in Bangladesh’s interior political opinions, a claim denied by a US Enlighten Department spokesperson, who reiterated that the US supported free and brilliant elections and would proceed to engage with the govt, opposition, civil society, and others.
Russian International Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, on 22 November, claimed in an embassy short that US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas had met with a excessive-ranking guide of the local opposition at the terminate of October and reportedly discussed plans to prepare mass anti-govt protests. Zakharova also claimed that the American ambassador promised information abet if the authorities passe force in opposition to participants in “aloof demonstrations.” These assurances were reportedly made on behalf of the embassies of the US, Britain, Australia, and several other other nations.
China criticized the U.S. for interfering in Bangladesh’s election. The deepening relationship between China and Hasina-led Bangladesh — whose plot on the Bay of Bengal made it a needed accomplice for the U.S. Indo-Pacific technique — become now no longer prone to take a seat neatly with Washington.
No longer one of the superpowers wished to concede defeat in Bangladesh. Public thought become that the US would impose sanctions both before or after the 7 January election. The European Union would possibly maybe maybe well apply the US’s lead in taking measures. It could maybe maybe also be delicate for the Bangladesh economic system to endure the extensive shock if RMG exports were damage in the US and Europe.
Earn the subsequent allotment of this thrilling series on Saturday!
