While you had ever asked an economist or style practitioner in non-public in regards to the quality of recordsdata supplied by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) sooner than 5 August, the reply would have varied from ‘not so gigantic’ to ‘absolute rubbish’. Off the file, one prominent economist even went as a ways as announcing, “Don’t demand me to touch upon these lies.”
The scorching findings from the Bangladesh Institute of Pattern Review (BIDS) corroborates the thought; the ‘User Satisfaction Peruse 2024’ finds that virtually all efficient 29.39% of users expressed satisfaction with the quality of recordsdata supplied by BBS.
This dissatisfaction is emblematic of a broader mutter of affairs of reliability inner the BBS. Customers have long raised concerns in regards to the timeliness, consistency, and transparency of the guidelines. With finest 47.88% of users expressing satisfaction with the frequency of the statistics; this points to a systemic mutter of affairs the build BBS fails to present timely updates in an vital areas take care of earnings, poverty, and agricultural recordsdata.
The absence of loyal and up-to-date recordsdata complicates efforts to acquire truly helpful choices in governance, business planning, and overview. This points in direction of an glaring demand: To what extent did the guidelines manipulation happen? And what are its penalties?
The mutter of affairs of dissatisfaction can’t be separated from the upper context of political interference and manipulation of recordsdata by BBS. Beneath the Awami League regime, the agency faced serious allegations of inflating financial figures — in particular relating to GDP boost — and deflating inflation rates, that were frail to mission a rosy financial picture.
Birupaksha Paul, a professor of economics at the Deliver University of New York at Cortland and lightweight chief economist of Bangladesh Bank, became barely serious of AHM Mustafa Kamal, the Minister of Planning from 12 January 2014 to 7 January 2019 and Minister for Finance from 7 January 2019 to 10 January 2024, for his undue interference in recordsdata.
“Serene recordsdata became doctored to suit the political fable,” he stated, “also, the govt. had the privilege to govern and cowl sensitive recordsdata as effectively. They manipulated the guidelines opportunistically and made it politically delectable. Ministers who were proficient in recordsdata manipulation were rewarded.
“And recordsdata frequency became also reduced. On story of it allowed them to cowl their weaknesses,” he added.
Riti Ibrahim, gentle secretary of the Statistics and Informatics Division, Ministry of Planning, shared the same experiences.
“Advise a definite figure wished to be shown as 15. However the guidelines evaluation yielded the number to be 6. It would not add up, obviously,” she stated. Then the guidelines would must be manipulated.
This mutter of affairs grew to was extra pronounced in the sensitive branches that dealt with serious financial indicators, the build recordsdata discrepancies were most prominent. Over time, this interference ended in vital distortions in the published recordsdata, which misled not finest domestic audiences nonetheless also worldwide style companies, as style companions take care of the World Bank relied on BBS recordsdata. Even then, there became scepticism.
Bangladesh’s Statistical Skill Indicator, published by the World Bank, supplies a stark reflection of this declining belief in the country’s recordsdata. In 2014, Bangladesh scored 80 out of 100, signalling moderately stable statistical performance.
On the opposite hand, by 2020, this bring together had plummeted to 60, a bright decline that highlighted the country’s struggles in asserting credible and transparent statistical practices.
The sharpest decline became viewed in methodological indicators, the build the bring together fell from 70 in 2014 to a mere 30 in 2020. This drop, critically decrease than South Asia’s average bring together of 69, raised red flags amongst worldwide style organisations and economists alike.
Concerns over the reliability of BBS recordsdata are not recent nonetheless have grown over time. Within the route of the 2017-18 fiscal year, the govt. projected an financial boost rate of seven.65%, critically increased than the World Bank’s forecast of 6.65%. This discrepancy ended in a public standoff between the govt. and worldwide organisations, with the gentle maintaining a press conference to narrate the accuracy of its recordsdata.
Jyoti Rahman, a macroeconomist primarily based in Australia, stated, “Estimation of financial statistics similar to the nationwide accounts or user stamp inflation is inherently refined. As an illustration, it’s not straightforward to capture the fee added in novel services and products that rely on smartphones and apps. The converse is compounded when the statistics agency is politicised.
“Like every other organ of the mutter, the BBS became also politicised below the fallen regime, with the worst excesses occurring when Mr Kamal became the Planning Minister,” he added.
Kamal’s successor in the Planning Ministry, MA Mannan, tried to curb the rampant politicisation, stated Jyoti Rahman.
“After the IMF program came into enact in 2023, the BBS began releasing the quarterly nationwide accounts, which obtain it extra refined to invent financial boost figures. The CPI weights were also up up to now,” he added.
On the opposite hand, the BBS had already lost credibility below the weak regime and therefore the methodological enhancements failed to allay concerns, Jyoti Rahman opined.
The manipulation prolonged past factual GDP figures.
Inflation recordsdata, but another key financial indicator, became engineered to present decrease-than-genuine numbers. And the BIDS peep reflects it as effectively. The peep finds that 33.16% of users build not belief BBS’s inflation statistics. Also, 27.44% of users own the guidelines’s reliability is low, and 5.72% assign in thoughts it exclusively unreliable.
Dr Birupaksha Paul stated, “National earnings story became shown to be larger than the genuine figure, so that per capita earnings can be inflated. At the same time, inflation recordsdata became downsized. Why would you deem the inflation rate hovered around 9%, nonetheless never crossed 10%? On story of it became never shown.”
Consequences of recordsdata manipulation on style and coverage
The implications of manipulating recordsdata for political be triumphant in are a ways-reaching. Economists have likened governing with incorrect recordsdata to using blindfolded — choices made in accordance to improper recordsdata regularly result in ineffective insurance policies that build not address the inspiration causes of financial points.
Inaccurate GDP and inflation statistics distort the thought of financial growth, leading to faulty insurance policies that can also in the origin seem efficient nonetheless by hook or by crook mutter off extra pains.
As an illustration, overstating GDP boost can lead to premature claims of financial success, that can, in flip, justify a scarcity of funding in sectors that require serious consideration, similar to infrastructure and healthcare.
International organisations take care of the World Bank and the Asian Pattern Bank (ADB) have raised alarms over these discrepancies, noting that unreliable statistics obtain it refined to assess the precise financial arena of the country.
For policymakers, the manipulation of statistics creates vital barriers to efficient governance. Correct sort recordsdata is the cornerstone of decision-making in any country.
“When statistics are doctored to assist political narratives, the factual mutter of the financial system is obscured,” stated Birupaksha Paul. “Bangladesh turning into a developed country by 2041 became also piece of this improper fable in accordance to manipulated recordsdata.”
Jyoti Rahman supported the thought as effectively.
“There’s a announcing in advertising and marketing that a salesperson mustn’t own their very own hump. It is arduous to characterize whether the weak regime had adhered to this weak dictum. Economic projections and insurance policies had to make expend of the respectable figures. However the industrial modelling and methodology could possibly possibly continually be adjusted by the officers to adjust for the exaggeration.
“Perhaps as time went on, and the extra skilled and seasoned officers left the forms, such adjustments grew to was rarer,” he continued.
This makes it refined for the govt. to implement insurance policies that could possibly address pressing points take care of inflation, unemployment, and poverty. Deceptive recordsdata on inflation, shall we impart, resulted in insurance policies that underestimated the severity of rising costs, thereby compounding the industrial challenges faced by the population.
When asked in regards to the guidelines manipulation, Mohammed Mizanur Rahman, director total of the BBS, stated, “A White-Paper Committee has been fashioned below the leadership of Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, who will investigate the methodology and credibility of the BBS recordsdata from the time in demand. Within the event that they salvage any discrepancy, they’re going to notify it.”
Concerning the political have an effect on on BBS recordsdata, he stated that he has not viewed any outside have an effect on all the map via his time as the DG since last year.
“I will be able to not touch upon what took space at the time in demand on story of I became not here wait on then.”
Steps for BBS to enhance transparency and accuracy
Restoring belief in BBS will require gigantic reforms. Higher transparency and independence in how recordsdata is composed and reported is paramount.
“Improvements in statistical suggestions are vital to rebuild public belief. BBS wants to be extra transparent about its recordsdata series processes and assign in thoughts gathering feedback from users,” stated Riti Ibrahim.
One serious advice is the establishment of an honest oversight body that could possibly tune BBS operations and obtain sure the integrity of the guidelines. This form of body would be accountable for conducting popular audits, detecting discrepancies early, and combating political interference in the guidelines series and reporting processes.
Strengthening the internal technique of BBS is but another an vital step. Appointing statisticians and mavens with technical expertise to key positions inner the agency is a vital to guaranteeing the accuracy and reliability of the guidelines.
Currently, many leadership positions inner BBS are stuffed by people from administrative cadres who could possibly well also lack the statistical recordsdata required for such roles.
“BBS is currently dominated by administrative cadre officers in senior roles, which hampers its skill to function effectively. It is important to appoint statisticians to these key positions to acquire sure glorious steering inner the agency. While technical committees are largely statisticians, appealing external consultants would toughen the quality of the guidelines,” Riti added.
Besides to, improving recordsdata accessibility and frequency wants to be a top precedence. BBS must undertake comprehensive changes to rebuild belief, enhance transparency, and be sure that its statistics are each glorious and timely. Splendid by addressing these points can Bangladesh be sure that its insurance policies are in accordance to solid, loyal recordsdata that reflects the factual mutter of the financial system.
Dr Birupaksha Paul stated, “We favor extra frequency of updates. In every other case, how will you be ready to predict the route of the financial system?
“Like every other govt agency, the senior leadership wants to be revamped. Right here’s vital to revive public belief,” stated Jyoti Rahman.
He is optimistic that over time, the BBS will submit barely just a few methodological assumptions and organise seminars and workshops appealing honest practitioners, teachers and journalists.
“These moves will wait on restore each competence and credibility of the BBS,” he added as effectively.
Moreover, take care of the US or India, there wants to be non-public deem-tanks that could possibly calculate gargantuan-scale recordsdata.
Dr Birupaksha Paul thinks that ending the guidelines monopoly of BBS can be worthwhile to construct exams and balances, so that recordsdata manipulation could possibly well also also be detected.
