The Constructed-in Energy and Energy Master Notion (IEPMP) of Bangladesh govt is failing to traipse up the renewable energy transition and improve nationwide energy security, a grunt printed by South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM) has stumbled on.
The grunt, written by Energy Specialist Shafiqul Alam, careworn the must streamline the pathway for the skill and energy sectors.
The IEPMP gives no roadmap to include the Bangladesh Energy Pattern Board’s (BPDB) deepening revenue shortfall, the grunt stated.
Extra, it puts the nation at the threat of imported fossil gas lock-in and a disorderly energy transition counting on unproven applied sciences, equivalent to carbon grasp and storage (CCS) and ammonia, raising extra questions than addressing concerns.
As an integrated policy grunt, the IEPMP would per chance also gentle make certain that Bangladesh’s key energy and energy sector organisations are on board, driving them in opposition to sustainability, the grunt added.
This call becomes louder on the attend of the BPDB’s annual revenue shortfall, which compelled the Bangladesh govt to pay a cumulative subsidy of Bangladeshi Taka (Tk) 809.7 billion (US$6.88 billion) all by strategy of the fiscal 300 and sixty five days (FY) 2020-21 to FY2022-23.
Nonetheless, the IEPMP has no blueprint to the BPDB’s diminishing monetary strength, the grunt acknowledged.
One of many important causes in the attend of BPDB’s revenue shortfall is the exchange sector’s tepid demand boost in the grid electrical energy consumption. Attributable to a lack of dependable grid electrical energy, industries combined operate around 3,000 megawatts (MW) of gas-fired captive mills even as grid electrical energy stays underutilised. The IEPMP’s pure gas demand outlook suggests industries would per chance also tremendously rely on gas-fired captive technology past 2040, Shafiqul wrote.
With nuclear energy plant life and loads of alternative fossil-gas-fired baseload plant life scheduled to be on-line by 2027, the BPDB will continue to incur heavy revenue shortfall from underutilisation of energy ability except industries step by step shift to grid electrical energy.
Below varied eventualities, the IEPMP’s proposed energy mixes will impress Bangladesh extra import-dependent, exposing it to the high label volatility of the global energy market and raising downside over foreign exchange reserves. These are evident from the outlook of the pure gas supply stability, which estimates Bangladesh’s liquefied pure gas (LNG) demand to reach between 2,845 million cubic toes per day (MMcfd) and 6,442MMcfd in 2050 below the Standpoint Notion (of Bangladesh 2021-) 2041 and in-between eventualities, respectively, locking-in high import dependence. IEEFA’s calculation, in step with IEPMP’s projections, reveals that LNG imports will run between 4.35 and 9.85 times in 2050 when put next with the 2023 degree. As such, Bangladesh will incur annual LNG import prices between US$8 billion and US$18.2 billion in 2050 (taking a low LNG label of US$8 per metric million British thermal models (MMBtu)). The business burden will greatly develop if the LNG label spikes to US$40/MMBtu. Particularly, Bangladesh suspended LNG purchases from the placement market when the value crossed US$40/MMBtu in 2022, Shafiqul added.
The IEPMP also predicts that Bangladesh will delivery utilizing hydrogen in 2040, with the probability of its share reaching between 7.6% and 8.5% of the nation’s entire important supply in 2050. The grasp understanding states that the nation will largely rely on imported hydrogen, intensifying energy security dangers extra.
The grunt stated that the IEPMP concludes that CCS and ammonia co-firing applied sciences are in their infancy and must undergo a rigorous review, it considers the likely contribution of CCS with pure gas-fired plant life starting from 6% to 7.4% in the nation’s energy arrangement in 2050. IEEFA’s overview casts severe doubt on CCS projects’ technical and financial feasibility and effectiveness. This raises the ask of whether or now not Bangladesh would per chance also gentle protect discontinuance the threat of its aspiration to bury carbon dioxide underground other than harnessing some easy and proven renewable energy and energy effectivity solutions.
In the identical breadth, ammonia co-firing with coal-fired plant life, a solution urged by the IEPMP, would require foremost investments that will additionally now not yield the specified emission reduction results.
Essentially essentially based completely on the grunt, the IEPMP charts four hydrogen alternate solutions:
Particularly, the IEPMP admits these hydrogen applied sciences are economically inconvenient for Bangladesh. When Bangladesh struggles to shore up renewable energy ability, it is unlikely that the nation will include surplus electrical energy from renewable energy to invent hydrogen in the foreseeable future. In its place, it would per chance also gentle work on ramping up renewable energy.
Attributable to this fact, Bangladesh wants to ingredient all dangers associated with these applied sciences into investment issues, the grunt stated.
Little level of interest on Renewable Energy
The IEPMP seems overly conservative on the probability of yielding broad success in renewable energy. The grasp understanding anticipates solar and wind to remain variable even in 2050, because it has excluded the aptitude operate of battery storage. As such, renewable energy will handiest meet 5.4% of Bangladesh’s entire important energy requirement in 2050 in opposition to the natty energy’s share of as a lot as 30%. The grasp understanding’s warning about land scarcity doesn’t painting the actuality because a mixture of dispensed and utility-scale renewable energy would per chance also unleash substantial alternative in Bangladesh.
The IEPMP would per chance also gentle be a blueprint, with projections of rational demand and provide sources, to guide Bangladesh’s energy and energy sectors in opposition to sustainability, slashing imported fossil gas dependence. As renewable energy and battery storage continue to skills payment drops and BPDB faces a hefty annual revenue shortfall, there is ability for the IEPMP to adapt to address its shortcomings. Moreover, the IEPMP would per chance also gentle abet a ways from unreliable applied sciences that will additionally land Bangladesh at a a ways better threat.
Because the IEPMP is a residing grunt that mentions “the understanding is now not the stop of product”, Bangladesh would per chance also gentle revisit the grunt to scheme a determined pathway for bettering BPDB’s monetary strength and Bangladesh’s energy security, fending off unproven applied sciences. Extra importantly, the revised IEPMP would per chance also gentle attend improve the nation’s resilience in opposition to unexpected label spikes and provide disorders in the global gas market by directing in opposition to utilising native energy sources, including renewables.
