There could be a sharp graffiti on a wall beside the street connecting Jatrabari to Kamalapur. It reads — Nouka ar dhaaner shish, dui shaap er eki bish. (Whether or no longer it be boat – the electoral symbol of Awami League – or paddy – the electoral symbol of Bangladesh Nationalist Occasion – they are equally shocking). Arguments will be made whether or no longer such a comparability is justified, on condition that no violent revolution was as soon as ever obligatory to eradicate BNP from energy, nonetheless the graffiti develop signify the mindset of a half of the early life, who contain defied loss of life to eradicate Sheikh Hasina from energy.
The political panorama of Bangladesh has been dominated by two families—the Sheikh and Zia families—who contain collectively managed the reins of energy for 41 of the fifty three years since the nation’s independence.
The Sheikh family has dominated the nation for 23 years. After the emergence of unbiased Bangladesh, the Awami League received the predominant frequent elections in 1973 nonetheless was as soon as overthrown in 1975 after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The occasion was as soon as forced by subsequent navy regimes onto the political sidelines, and deal of its senior leaders and activists had been executed or jailed.
After the restoration of democracy in 1990, the AL came to energy in 1996 below the management of Sheikh Hasina. And since 2009, it was as soon as consistently in energy between 2009 and 2024, before she was as soon as forced to flee the nation in the face of a violent revolution.
On completely different hand, the Zia family, with the moribund Khaleda Zia and her son Tarique Rahman on the helm of the Bangladesh Nationalist Occasion (BNP), has been completely different dominant power. It has been in energy for 13 years, winning the 1979 and 1981 presidential elections as well because the 1991, 1996, and 2001 frequent elections.
Now, after the violent overthrow of the Hasina govt on 5 August 2024, the search recordsdata from that has been circulated around the nation — Will there be a dominant early life-led different to instruct the damaged-down two-occasion thought in the subsequent polls?
For this, we have to peek into the socio-political components that created such dominant events.
Every BNP and AL combination citizen and community preferences, and fuse these pursuits into a consistent long-length of time program. With out this partisan brokering feature, unbiased actors would lunge along with the float around the political dwelling chaotically.
Voters most steadily contain minute working out of how their vote picks could maybe maybe translate into public protection; they do no longer look like in the complex dynamics of democratic rights and institutions. All they wish are straightforward symbols esteem Mujib and Zia or boat and paddy.
Now, a democracy of only civic associations would be too fragmented to operate. Many civic associations come and lunge. Scale and structure matter for consistency and equality of illustration, which few events can consistently enact.
And subsequently, there are so powerful of instances of two-occasion democratic systems at some stage in the sphere.
Probably, in Bangladesh, this entrenched two-occasion system has stifled political diversity, relegating completely different political entities to the fringes of the political enviornment. There are some minor events who contain held a in fact huge sway, esteem Jamaat-e-Islami or Jatiya Occasion, nonetheless none of them are dominant ample to instruct BNP or AL for the parliament. And the remainder are acceptable minute fish, as a minimum in vote half.
In a nation where even deepest relationships are certain by who you vote for, breaking the 2-occasion cycle is a herculean job indeed. AL and BNP contain deeply entrenched patronage networks that stretch at some stage in all phases of society, from civil servants to industry leaders, and even mavens esteem lawyers, doctors, and academics.
These networks are necessary for sustaining their retain on energy, as loyalty to at least one in all the 2 predominant events most steadily determines safe entry to to resources, jobs, and opportunities.
Then again, the massive shift in Bangladeshi politics prompted by the July Revolution has changed all equations.
The govt.’s violent crackdown on protesters, which resulted in an infinite different of deaths and injuries, only intensified the final public’s infuriate, turning the coed-led insist into a nationwide civil disobedience glide.
This Gen-Z-led rebellion indicators a doable shift in the political dynamics of Bangladesh, where the younger technology is extra and extra unwilling to just gather the put quo. The early life has confirmed the nation — Sure, our suppose matters.
Lots of the early life in fact feel extra and extra disconnected from the political job dominated by the 2 events. This discontent has created fertile ground for fresh political actions.
Already there appears to be a glide to compose a fresh younger revolutionaries-led political occasion. The Students Towards Discrimination leaders are travelling at some stage in the 64 districts to chat over with the injured protesters, early life leaders, and frequent people.
Furthermore, a 55-member platform known as the Nationwide Electorate’ Committee was as soon as launched on 8 September, with Muhammad Nasiruddin Patwari because the convener and Akhtar Hossain, a dilapidated social welfare secretary of Dhaka University Central Students’ Union, because the member secretary.
An unlimited half of the people online are hopeful referring to the inclinations, hoping that a fresh early life-led occasion will be fashioned at the moment; and the supporters of the SAD are hopeful about them contesting in the subsequent election.
But the search recordsdata from stays: can these organisations coalesce into a viable third power that could maybe instruct the hegemony of BNP and AL?
Classes from India and Pakistan
To adore how a fresh political power could maybe maybe emerge in Bangladesh, it’s functional to peek at examples from neighbouring countries.
In India, the upward thrust of the Aam Aadmi Occasion (AAP) emerged from the anti-corruption glide of 2011, which was as soon as fueled by modern frustration with the corruption and inefficiency of the Indian Nationwide Congress (INC). Arvind Kejriwal and his then-companions created a occasion which is at display the governing occasion in the notify of Punjab and the union territory of Delhi.
AAP’s success was as soon as built on its capability to tap into this public infuriate, presenting itself as a vivid, responsible different to the damaged-down events.
AAP’s strategy involved constructing a grassroots glide that emphasised transparency, honesty, and convey involvement in governance. The occasion’s exercise of localised manifestos and its reliance on an intensive volunteer network allowed it to place with voters on considerations that at as soon as affected their lives.
Furthermore, AAP’s focal point on metropolis center-class voters, who had been upset with the established events, helped it be triumphant in a foothold in Delhi, at remaining leading to its recognition as a nationwide occasion. Its penetration to the metropolis center-class was as soon as so thorough that even the famed YouTuber Dhruv Rathee as soon as created their online election marketing campaign contents knowledgeable bono.
Any third occasion in Bangladesh can cash on the metropolis sentiment, acceptable esteem AAP. Then again, they could maybe restful need to take care of the truth that there is no Kejriwal, a prominent activist and winner of the Ramon Magsaysay Award, amongst their ranks.
In a similar model, in Pakistan, the upward thrust of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) below Imran Khan reveals how a fresh occasion can disrupt the political put quo. PTI capitalised on public frustration with the entrenched political dynasties and the navy’s have an effect on over politics, and in Pakistan, this axis has no longer let the democratic system to face.
Khan’s populist rhetoric and spruce exercise of social media, mixed with his promise of bringing democracy and ending corruption, resonated with a gargantuan spectrum of the population.
Even after his ousting from energy, Khan’s capability to situation himself as an anti-establishment resolve has maintained his appeal amongst many Pakistanis, especially these upset with the damaged-down energy structures. I as soon as met a younger college student who was as soon as a occasion member of PTI. He was as soon as even injured at some stage in a insist disturbing Imran Khan’s unlock.
I requested him, “Why Imran Khan?”
His acknowledge was as soon as, “Handiest he has the guts to focus on up to the navy.”
Such is the image of Imran Khan now, though when he first came to energy in August 2018, the modern perception was as soon as that it was as soon as the final result of his entente with the navy elites.
But, Imran Khan himself had been in the political enviornment from 1996. His success took 22 years but to come merit. Identical goes for Kejriwal, who had been an anti-corruption activist from 1999. Unlike the younger faces of Bangladeshi revolution, they had already turn into an icon in the political enviornment.
The functionality for a fresh political power in Bangladesh
The lessons from India and Pakistan counsel that a fresh political power in Bangladesh would must tap into the modern discontent with the present events, particularly amongst the early life.
“Every person has the beautiful to compose a political occasion,” said the damaged-down political theorist and prominent activist Farhad Mazhar, “After such a mass-rebellion, people will certainly assert their desires and revel in their newfound political freedom thru completely different events, whether or no longer it’s the youths or the older people. For this reason, I in fact feel esteem it’s a favorable signal that contributors are voicing their requires for a fresh political occasion.”
“And likewise, it appears that they mediate that the indispensable two events are unable to fulfil their requires and failed to signify them effectively.”
“The passe political events contain no longer been succesful of uproot the fascist regime. From this, we can tag that the everyday enhance is no longer in the good thing about them. If it was as soon as so, then the mass rebellion would had been led by the BNP. But no, the early life contain led it,” he added.
So, to him, it’s evident that the people belief the early life. And they wish to turn into self sustaining from from the 2-occasion cycle. The people could maybe tag bits of the early life’s ideology, they could maybe no longer tag the remainder of it. But, they’ve confirmed us that their aspirations and desires are reflected by the early life’s activism.
Then again, efficiently braving thru a revolution and transitioning into a fresh political occasion are two completely different ball video games. That’s how Dr Abdul Latif Masum, retired professor of the Department of Authorities and Politics, Jahangirnagar University, and dilapidated vice chancellor of Patuakhali Science and Technology University, views the difficulty.
“We are grateful to the early life who delivered us from the 17-year-long fascism. They contain got done one thing the political events contain no longer been succesful of develop in years. But changing into a dominant political occasion in a pair of years is a in reality completely different search recordsdata from altogether.”
“A dominant political occasion esteem BNP or AL has connections to varied stakeholders of the notify, esteem civil society, types, and local administration. In a fancy political panorama equivalent to ours, gaining mass reputation and acceptance is a no longer easy job.”
“But what they’ll develop is play the long game,” he suggested, “give spruce campaigns, engage with the voters. That design, in a pair of years, they’ll turn into a magnificent power.”
Unmesh Roy, the chairman of the Department of Bangla on the Barisal University, has been an active supporter of the July Revolution. He was as soon as even threatened with suspension from his University situation. Being a lifelong activist, he sees the rising enhance for the fresh third power being constrained by its metropolis supporter tainted.
“Until a occasion has an active committee on the ward or union stage, it has no probability to turn into a viable power in energy politics,” he says.
“Seems, even a farmer is a supporter of either BNP or AL. Can the fresh occasion attain the farmers? This is the penetration that separates the 2 dominant events from the total completely different events.”
“Now we contain considered many fresh events rise and fall. They are whisper material with press briefings and seminars. But events that come from capitalising a assert instruct will be forgotten as soon as the difficulty is subsided. Social media perception doesn’t translate to votes, you know? What they’ll be is a stress community at most productive.”
For such a glide to be triumphant, it must steer certain of the pitfalls which contain plagued old makes an try to interrupt the 2-occasion system, most particularly by Jatiya Occasion in the Nineteen Eighties or the minus-2 design in 2007-2008. Exploiting the energy vacuum post-revolution, the fresh occasion could maybe be triumphant, thinks Zahid Ahsan, a creator who was as soon as an active activist in the revolution.
“The fresh occasion could maybe turn into a dominant power if it must withhold the spirit of the revolution. At some stage in the revolution, all binaries had been damaged. It was as soon as an inclusive power. And if the fresh occasion can encapsulate inclusiveness and transcend the frequent political binaries, it’d be welcomed.”
One in every of the predominant challenges will be constructing a gargantuan-basically basically based coalition that could maybe attract a various fluctuate of voters, at the side of these in rural areas who contain traditionally been accurate to the indispensable events.
This is succesful of require a cautious balancing act, because the fresh occasion will must shield its core values of accountability, transparency, and democratic reform while also addressing the quick concerns of celebrated electorate, equivalent to employment, schooling, and healthcare.
One other necessary part will be management. The glide will need a glide-setter or a community of leaders who can dispute a certain imaginative and prescient for the future, someone who can unite the many factions at some stage in the glide and present a official different to the current political management.
This chief must also be succesful to navigate the complex political panorama of Bangladesh, constructing alliances with completely different events and groups while sustaining the glide’s independence and integrity. And with out a glide-setter, a occasion is acceptable a faceless title on the poster.
Unmesh Roy pointed it out as well, “Even Imran Khan was as soon as any individual before he grew to turn into the high minister. Yet he needed to be on the discipline for Twenty years. With out an icon, no occasion can turn into a dominant power in the subcontinent.”
Will the younger revolutionaries be succesful to compose a ambitious political occasion?
The Gen-Z, which has grown up in the digital age, is extra connected, knowledgeable, and politically mindful than old generations. They contain got former social media and completely different digital platforms to organise, mobilise, and boost their voices, despite govt makes an try to shut down the web and limit safe entry to to recordsdata.
This tech-savvy technology is also less tolerant of corruption, authoritarianism, and the entrenched political elites which contain dominated Bangladeshi politics for many years, as evident by their mass participation in the revolution.
Their requires for greater transparency, accountability, and democratic reform could maybe resonate with a broader section of the population, at the side of many who contain traditionally supported the Awami League or BNP nonetheless are now upset with the route of the nation.
“The success of the July Revolution could maybe encourage a fresh wave of political activism in Bangladesh that challenges the put quo,” said Suriya Binta Junnat, a student of Dhaka University.
Then again, for this to occur, the glide will must transition from a insist glide to a political power that could maybe contest and earn elections. This is succesful of require no longer only mobilising voters nonetheless also constructing a magnificent organisational structure, constructing a certain political platform, and piquant in the day-to-day work of politics, from candidate different to fundraising to voter outreach.
“I’m sceptical about their capability to total all this stuff within a pair of years,” she said, “So though every AL and BNP in fact feel esteem the 2 aspects of the same coin to me, I fabricate no longer in fact search any drastic alternate coming any time at the moment.”
Tanvir Thamid, a non-resident student and activist, has flown dwelling from the usa to affix the protests in July.
“It is miles also ideal for us to perceive a political rebellion led by the coed representatives who guided us at some stage in the glide. Then again, the probability and feasibility of this happening seem very low, especially since these entities contain done minute to place with the grassroots. This infrastructural limitation is extra compounded by their lack of effort in establishing a political identity on the nationwide stage.”
It appears to him esteem a utopian thought that the early life leaders would all of sudden turn into a contender in nationwide politics against events esteem the BNP. In his thought, their most productive option is to strive a coalition with higher events for the upcoming nationwide election and incessantly carry out a genuine political and democratic identity from there.
“Had they confirmed any makes an try to organise a honest political structure, I imagine many folk would had been in joining them,” he said, echoing a sentiment that has been on the upward thrust since the revolution.
“A valuable half of our technology, who participated in this glide, has turn into politically mindful and would be desperate to exercise democracy by being segment of a political occasion that at as soon as represents them,” he added, “We accredited their management at some stage in the revolution and risked our lives to bring an quit to fascism. Then again, the predominant search recordsdata from now will be how they’ll capitalise on that enhance and manifest it into a tangible political power.”
One in every of the largest concerns is the organisation and mobilisation of the fresh occasion. Farhad Mazhar thinks that the early life are succesful ample to organise a magnificent occasion. He appears confident referring to the functionality and the reputation of the younger leaders.
“The early life who contain led such a ancient mass rebellion will be succesful to manage a occasion—anybody with frequent sense can search that. It is evident that there is an present organisation and coordination amongst the scholars, they are acceptable but to title it as a political occasion.”
“Now we contain considered how powerful their coordination and brotherly love are. Now we contain considered its result as well. So it’s rather frequent to mediate that they are a magnificent organised power. In the smash, their organisational functionality will be gigantic.”
But, there are sceptics esteem Meem Arafat Manab, an activist and lecturer at BRAC University.
“In the subsequent election, any fresh occasion has no probability in anyway. But if they originate now, 10-15 years later, things could maybe alternate. Politics is a long game. Who knows, eventually Mahfuj Alam could maybe turn into Viktor Orbán!”
Viktor Orbán rose to prominence as a staunch anti-Soviet, liberal nationalist democratic student chief in the Nineties.
Zahid Ahsan cautioned against any most likely backtracking from the dreams of the revolution.
“If the solidarity that played an indispensable feature in the revolution is damaged, and the fresh occasion betrays the spirit of the revolution, then I mediate it would turn into every other footnote in our political chapter.”
But there are most likely voters who would shut their eyes and vote for any fresh occasion emerging from the revolution, such because the banker Supria Shabnom Protiva.
“I could maybe never vote in my life. I’ll solid my first vote for the younger occasion who would esteem the nation, imagine the people, and no longer misuse energy.”
Or younger student Mehedi Hasan Akash, who shed blood in the July Revolution.
“The younger technology who restored the people’s freedom of speech and overthrew the fascist regime, did it with none expectation of reward. They fully demanded justice for the blood of their brothers and sisters. The students, who shed their blood to make certain the rights of the people, will no longer disappoint the nation if the accountability of the nation’s governance is entrusted to them. The people will welcome them.”
Now, if the younger revolutionaries compose a fresh occasion and take half in the subsequent election, will they turn into a viable power in our parliamentary democracy? We develop no longer know but. But for now, after years, we esteem the noise of democracy!
